Doing the Tony Benn historical perspective on politics thing.

In response to Andrew's comment on my post yesterday, I'm expanding a bit, as much to make sure that my thoughts hold water as from any need to convince anyone!

I have to confess to always having been a bit of a Brownite. I could see that Bambi was a Good Thing for the UK in 1997, but the gilt very soon wore off the gingerbread for me, being someone who likes a little substance with their style, and has the old fashioned belief that politicians should lead their country bravely to do the right thing rather than checking with the public whether it would be all right by them if the governement followed a certain course of action. Ironically the only time when Tony Blair did 'lead' us, when he didn't talk to a focus group, it was into that disastrous war. I don't think Gordon Brown would have done such a thing, because I don't think he is as concerned with his place in the history books, and I don't think he would ever have been blinded by the Bush dynasty.

In short, I think that had the little chat in the Ivy turned out the other way, the world would be a very different place today. But such conjecture, although interesting to me, is ultimately pointless.

But as to this government being dead in the water, well, that doesn't only depend on the leader of the party in power, or indeed the party at all, but very largely what you'd replace them with. I don't really think that David Campbell is the next Prime Minister. He's lost a lot of his own party who are bewildered by the direction he's taking the party in. He's very policy-lite. He swings from Hug a Hoodie to We're The Party Who Support Marriage in that populist way which TB made work so well, but the British populace are wise to that now, so he comes off as doing a pale imitation of Blair ten years too late.

I think there's a historical precedent for what's happening in British politics today. The post-1997 turmoil in the Conservative party looks very much like the post-1979 turmoil in Labour.

In 1979 Thatcher slaughters Callaghan and Labour panics. With Britain having elected a right wing government they lurch sharply to the Left and choose Michael Foot as their leader over arguably the best leader they never had in Dennis Healey.

In 1997 Blair slaughters Major and the Conservatives panic. With Britain having elected a soft left government, they lurch sharply to the right and elect William Hague over arguably the best leader they never had in Ken Clarke.

In 1983 Thatcher wins again. Michael Foot ditched. In comes another left winger in Neil Kinnock. He in turn is defeated in 1987.

In 1992, unbelievably and unexpectedly, Major, who’s knocked out Thatcher, wins over Kinnock, who stands down. The marvellous John Smith comes in, but death cheats him of his election opportunity and it’s young Tony Blair who wins the election.

Now the Tories implode. In 2001 Blair wins again, predictably. Hague is ditched in favour of Ian Duncan-Smith, another right winger. Then Michael Howard loses in 2005, and now our Dave will pitch at the next election. They haven’t got it right yet and they’re all over the place. I can’t see that they have yet earned the right to run the country. No one knows what they stand for. Not even they know what they stand for.

True, David Campbell looks, politically, a little like Tony Blair a decade ago, and not, I think, in a good way. His ‘modernisation’ of the party has a whiff of TB c.1996-7 about him, but really, it’s all a bit pallid and passé.

I reckon that GB will win another election; the Tories will change leader and win the next one. Maybe I’m wrong, but I might even be persuaded to place a small wager that I’m not.